Global demand has increased in the last decades, but it remains more of a niche product. After all, we still drive, fly, and heat with oil today and not with hydrogen. What seems to be clear, however, is that hydrogen has not yet established itself on the free market. In the Net Zero Emissions by 2050 Scenario, low-emissions hydrogen plays a key role in sectors that are hard to decarbonise, such as heavy industry and long-distance transport, with electrolysis powered by renewable electricity being the main route of production. Hydrogen production today is primarily based on unabated fossil fuel technologies. What is the role of electrolysers in clean energy transitions? This is just one example of how dynamically changing the so-called energy transition is. These could be extremely cheap to produce as Sodium is considerably cheaper than Lithium. For example, I wrote an article about emerging sodium-based batteries a few months ago. However, predicting the future remains difficult: Factors such as production costs, competition from electric cars, future costs of batteries as potential competition for energy storage, future oil prices, and more make forecasts very challenging. Furthermore, it could include various transportation methods. The total addressable market has immense potential as a possible storage option for excess electricity. Overall, an investment would be too driven by a good-sounding story. Future forecasts are difficult because they depend on many complex factors. Currently, hydrogen is politically promoted and subsidized, but hydrogen would have a hard time on the free market. In addition, share dilution and high share-based compensations are disadvantaging shareholders. Plug Power's ( NASDAQ: PLUG) profitability projections (profitable in 2025) appear overly optimistic, given the company's increasing expenses relative to its revenues. Despite its potential, hydrogen is currently not competitive due to its high cost and lower efficiency.
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